Modelling fish trade liberalisation: Does fish trade liberalisation result in welfare gains or losses?

Recent research has on the basis of general equilibrium models warned that trade liberalisation in non-optimally managed renewable resources might cause over-exploitation and reduced steady-state welfare. Welfare effects of trade liberalisation in open access and optimal management are found case specific and dependent on factors such as the country's status as importer or exporter, the state of the fish stocks and the size of the countries on the world market. The present paper develops an alternative partial equilibrium framework capable of identifying welfare effects of fish trade liberalisation also in the presence of complex but realistic management schemes, such as regulated open access and regulated restricted access. The case dependency known from the general equilibrium analysis is confirmed, but the introduction of realistic fisheries management schemes in the partial equilibrium model extended this case dependency. The welfare effect of trade liberalisation in an exporter country is negative under open access, but was found positive under regulated restricted access in the present paper.