Outlook of the EU energy system up to 2050: The case of scenarios prepared for European Commission's “clean energy for all Europeans” package using the PRIMES model

This paper presents a set of scenarios quantified by the PRIMES energy systems model that have provided input to the Impact Assessment work accompanying the “Clean Energy for all Europeans” package, brought forward by the European Commission in November 2016. The mandatory targets proposed or reiterated in the policy package are for the year 2030, within a decarbonisation context; the horizon of the modelling exercise extends to 2050. The role of electricity is essential for the transition, with energy efficiency and renewable energy sources being central pillars. The ETS mechanism along with bottom-up policy measures deliver the significant GHG emissions reductions needed for the decarbonisation of the EU energy system. The model based analysis reveals a significant shift away from OPEX towards CAPEX, with moderate impact on energy prices in the medium term.