A decision support methodology with risk assessment on prediction of terrorism insurgency distribution range radius and elapsing time: An empirical case study in Thailand

• Terrorism behaviours are captured and utilized to predict future operations.
• ANNs and Risk Assessment Radar Chart are proposed to defeat IED terrorism incidents.
• The Risk Assessment Radar Chart can predict radial distance and elapsing day from previous incident.
• Military planner can precisely release the EOMDU with opportunity to defeat terrorist.

The objectives of this research are to design and develop a practical decision support methodology with efficient prediction tool and risk assessment analysis of a terrorism insurgency situation. The proposed methodology consists of two main parts as: (1) the prediction modelling and (2) risk assessment analysis. The Improvised Explosive Device (IED) incidents from 2007 to 2013 in the capital district of Yala province, the southern part of Thailand, are collected and generated to the methodology as a case study implementation. The proposed methodology is capable of indicating and illustrating the risk assessment prediction results of terrorism insurgency incidents. Furthermore, the demonstration of the Explosive Ordnance Disposal Mobile Unit (EODMU) based upon a Risk Assessment Radar Chart is investigated. In practical terms of applying the proposed methodology, the Thai Government can concentrate on a critical operation zone under a Risk Assessment Radar Chart, resulting in a more accurate operation and leading to a much lower number of casualties.