Statistical tolerance analysis of a hyperstatic mechanism, using system reliability methods

The quality level of a mechanism can be evaluated a posteriori after several months by following the number of warranty returns. However, it is more interesting to evaluate a predicted quality level in the design stage: this is one of the aims of statistical tolerance analysis. A possible method consists of computing the defect probability (PD) expressed in ppm. It represents the probability that a functional requirement will not be satisfied in mass production. For assembly reasons, many hyperstatic mechanisms require gaps, which their functional requirements depend on. The defect probability assessment of such mechanisms is not straightforward, and requires advanced numerical methods. This problem particularly interests the VALEO W.S. company, which experiences problems with an assembly containing gaps. This paper proposes an innovative methodology to formulate and compute the defect probability of hyperstatic mechanisms with gaps in two steps. First, a complex feasibility problem is converted into a simpler problem. Then the defect probability is efficiently computed thanks to system reliability methods and the m-dimensional multivariate normal distribution Φm. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is provided to improve the original design. The whole approach is illustrated with an industrial case study, but can be adapted to other similar problems.

► Gaps within mechanisms complicate highly the defect probability assessment.
► The proposed method is based on the FORM methodology applied on system problems.
► The computation time is moderate to estimate the defect probability.