کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1135059 956087 2007 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Forecasting of the electric energy demand trend and monthly fluctuation with neural networks
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی صنعتی و تولید
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Forecasting of the electric energy demand trend and monthly fluctuation with neural networks
چکیده انگلیسی

Electric energy demand forecasting is a fundamental tool for production and distribution companies because it provides them with a prediction of the market demand of electric energy. Two kinds of forecasting may be performed: short term and medium to long term. This work is focused on monthly prediction, which is useful for the maintenance planning of grids and as market research for electricity producers and resellers. The timed series of monthly electric energy demands presents a rising tendency due to the influence of economic and technological evolution on the electric market. Embedded in this general trend is a fluctuation caused by the difference in demand from month to month. This paper proposes the extraction of that trend to perform separate predictions of both tendency and fluctuation with neural networks, which will be summed up to obtain the series forecasting. A Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of about 2% has been obtained.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Computers & Industrial Engineering - Volume 52, Issue 3, April 2007, Pages 336–343
نویسندگان
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