کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1135169 956091 2009 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A methodology for short-term electric load forecasting based on specialized recursive digital filters
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی صنعتی و تولید
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
A methodology for short-term electric load forecasting based on specialized recursive digital filters
چکیده انگلیسی

In this paper we propose a methodology for short-term electric load forecasting, which is adaptive and based on signal processing theory. The main interest here is to construct a next day predictor for the peak and hourly load. To this end the load data are organized into profiles according to day type and temperature interval. For each load profile, we use a specialized adaptive recursive digital filter, for which parameters are estimated on-line by using a recursive algorithm. As a result, the complete forecasting system is nonlinear and the prediction is computed based on the type and on the temperature interval of the next day. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is illustrated by a numerical example, in which we compare performance of the proposed approach to a non-specialized and a naïve predictors, by using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the forecasting errors.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Computers & Industrial Engineering - Volume 57, Issue 3, October 2009, Pages 724–731
نویسندگان
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