A new methodology for estimating contagious biological agent casualties as a function of time

The Human Response Injury Profile (HRIP) methodology uses time-based progressions of underlying symptoms and their severity changes over time to determine user-defined casualty and fatality estimates from chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) events. This paper provides an overview of the implementation of the HRIP contagious biological agent methodology for use in estimating casualties resulting from Plague and Smallpox exposure. The article describes inputs, human response, and the casualty estimation processes, as well as the details and parameters used for estimating contagious spread of Plague or Smallpox using the susceptible, exposed and infected, infectious, removed, and prophylaxis efficacious (SEIRP) model.