کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1137775 1489192 2008 19 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Signatures of non-homogeneous mixing in disease outbreaks
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی کنترل و سیستم های مهندسی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Signatures of non-homogeneous mixing in disease outbreaks
چکیده انگلیسی

Despite their simplifying assumptions, simple SEIR (susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed)-type models for a homogeneously mixing fully susceptible population continue to provide useful insight and predictive capability. However, non-homogeneous mixing models such as those for outbreaks in social networks are often believed to provide better predictions of the benefits of various mitigation strategies such as isolation or vaccination. In practice, it is rarely known to what extent a SEIR-type model will adequately describe a given population. Therefore, our goal here is to evaluate possible retrospective signatures of non-homogeneous mixing or non-SEIR-type behavior. Each signature evaluated here is a measure of the goodness of fit of a SEIR-type model curve to the actual epidemic curve. For example, the extents of agreement between the final outbreak size and predictions of the final outbreak size based on reproduction number estimates arising from fitting various portions of the epidemic curve are possible signatures. On the basis of simulated outbreaks, we conclude that such signatures can detect non-SEIR-type behavior in some but not all of the social structures considered. The simulation study confirms that these signatures indicate non-SEIR-type behavior in a real 1918 influenza outbreak in Geneva.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Mathematical and Computer Modelling - Volume 48, Issues 1–2, July 2008, Pages 122–140
نویسندگان
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