کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1138191 1489205 2007 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Instability and refinement of models in long term planning of large scale projects
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی کنترل و سیستم های مهندسی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Instability and refinement of models in long term planning of large scale projects
چکیده انگلیسی

Instability of models used in long term planning of large scale industrial projects is demonstrated. The uncertainty band around the balance set is introduced to account for unpredictable variations of important parameters or utilities created by instability in multi-objective optimization of large scale projects. Then, instability of dynamic models of growth is considered including population dynamics with saturation and long term optimal planning in social and economic spheres. A method of successive refinement in a synthetic multi-model system is proposed, and application of the sequence of refined models is illustrated on a real-life example of construction of a dam with yearly refinements of the initial model, based on past history of project realization.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Mathematical and Computer Modelling - Volume 45, Issues 11–12, June 2007, Pages 1342–1349
نویسندگان
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