State of the Field: Why novel prediction matters

• The value of novel predictive success is neither intrinsic nor indefeasible.
• Novel predictive success nevertheless has advantages over accommodation.
• Many discussions have considered predictive success’ value at only one level.
• Taken together, they show that predictive success is valuable at many levels.
• Thus, the most plausible view is Pluralist Instrumental Predictivism (PIP).

There is considerable disagreement about the epistemic value of novel predictive success, i.e. when a scientist predicts an unexpected phenomenon, experiments are conducted, and the prediction proves to be accurate. We survey the field on this question, noting both fully articulated views such as weak and strong predictivism, and more nascent views, such as pluralist reasons for the instrumental value of prediction. By examining the various reasons offered for the value of prediction across a range of inferential contexts (including inferences from data to phenomena, from phenomena to theory, and from theory to framework), we can see that neither weak nor strong predictivism captures all of the reasons for valuing prediction available. A third path is presented, Pluralist Instrumental Predictivism; PIP for short.