Effects of rural–urban development transformation on energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A regional analysis in China

Since the 1980s, China has been undergoing a period of rural–urban transformation. The rapid rural–urban development transformation (RUDT) in China has caused an excessive consumption of resources and environmental deterioration. Based on balanced provincial panel data in China gathered from 1990 to 2012, this study used an improved STIRPAT model to investigate the effects of RUDT on energy consumption and CO2 emissions on the regional and national levels. The empirical results showed that the impact of RUDT on energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China varied greatly across regions. The demographic transformation (measured by urbanization level) increased energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China and its eastern and central regions. The impact of employment structural transformation on energy consumption and carbon emissions across China generally was positive and significant but differed considerably across regions. The industrial structural transformation was positively correlated with and had a significant impact on energy consumption and emissions in the eastern and central regions, and that effect declined continuously from the eastern region to the central and western regions. Furthermore, the positive effect of land use transition on energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the western region was greater than that in the eastern and central regions. These findings can provide policymakers with a sound scientific basis for energy saving and emission reduction decisions.