Forecasting job creation from renewable energy deployment through a value-chain approach

This paper introduces a new approach to the study of the socioeconomic impact of renewable technologies through the analysis of the reinforcing effects of the expansion of this industry and the specific characteristics of the employment along the value chain.The method proposed is based on the collection, critical analysis and presentation of the results obtained using primary information sources. The model design includes contributions extracted from a prior analysis of the existing assessment methods, to lessen the uncertainty of the job ratios often used in these types of analysis.One factor to be taken into account is the high degree of development in the sector and above all the maturity of the technology considered from the point of view of the industry fabric: the economy of scale and technological development actually influences the human resources needs, sometimes increasing the demand for professionals within the scope of R&D and sometimes reducing jobs in the manufacturing industry, which is gradually applying processes with a greater degree of automation. The influence of these experience curves is different for every single stage of the value chain. Trade balance of technologies is also crucial for local employment generation.An analytical model was developed based on the above assumptions and applied to the Spanish PV industry. This industry has been playing a leading role in the expansion of renewable energy and offers a high potential towards the short-term development of the smart grids in this country.This model represents very well the history of the Spanish PV industry reflected through the evolution of the jobs and is shown to be the foundation of a methodology for prospective studies in the social and economic impacts of renewables.