Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques

There is a growing interest in reducing energy consumption and the associated greenhouse gas emissions in every sector of the economy. The residential sector is a substantial consumer of energy in every country, and therefore a focus for energy consumption efforts. Since the energy consumption characteristics of the residential sector are complex and inter-related, comprehensive models are needed to assess the technoeconomic impacts of adopting energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies suitable for residential applications.The aim of this paper is to provide an up-to-date review of the various modeling techniques used for modeling residential sector energy consumption. Two distinct approaches are identified: top-down and bottom-up. The top-down approach treats the residential sector as an energy sink and is not concerned with individual end-uses. It utilizes historic aggregate energy values and regresses the energy consumption of the housing stock as a function of top-level variables such as macroeconomic indicators (e.g. gross domestic product, unemployment, and inflation), energy price, and general climate. The bottom-up approach extrapolates the estimated energy consumption of a representative set of individual houses to regional and national levels, and consists of two distinct methodologies: the statistical method and the engineering method.Each technique relies on different levels of input information, different calculation or simulation techniques, and provides results with different applicability. A critical review of each technique, focusing on the strengths, shortcomings and purposes, is provided along with a review of models reported in the literature.