Vascular risk assessment in older adults without a history of cardiovascular disease

• Cardiovascular risk prediction models began with the Framingham Study in 1948.
• These tools perform poorly in older populations so newer models are needed.
• Several novel markers of risk have been proposed for use in older persons.
• Some show promise but evidence for their clinical utility is limited at present.
• Frailty also has an impact on both cardiovascular risk and the benefit of treatment.

Modern cardiovascular risk prediction tools, which have their genesis in the Framingham Heart Study, have allowed more accurate risk stratification and targeting of treatments worldwide over the last seven decades. Better cardiovascular risk factor control during this time has led to a reduction in cardiovascular mortality and, at least in part, to improved life expectancy. As a result, western societies as a whole have seen a steady increase in the proportion of older persons in their populations.Unfortunately, several studies have shown that the same tools which have contributed to this increase cannot be reliably extrapolated for use in older generations. Recent work has allowed recalibration of existing models for use in older populations but these modified tools still require external validation before they can be confidently applied in clinical practice. Another complication is emerging evidence that aggressive risk factor modification in older adults, particularly more frail individuals, may actually be harmful.This review looks at currently available cardiovascular risk prediction models and the specific challenges faced with their use in older adults, followed by analysis of recent attempts at recalibration for this cohort. We discuss the issue of frailty, looking at our evolving understanding of its constituent features and various tools for its assessment. We also review work to date on the impact of frailty on cardiovascular risk modification and outline its potentially central role in determining the most sensible approach in older patients. We summarise the most promising novel markers of cardiovascular risk which may be of use in improving risk prediction in older adults in the future. These include markers of vascular compliance (such as aortic pulse wave velocity and pulse wave analysis), of endothelial function (such as flow mediated dilation, carotid intima-media thickness and coronary artery calcium scores), and also biochemical and circulating cellular markers.