Prognostic Biomarkers for Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease Risk after Cyclophosphamide–Fludarabine Nonmyeloablative Allotransplantation

• Elevated ST2 and REG3α at days +14 and +21 were associated with aGVHD after NMAT.
• Elevated plasma elafin at day +14 was associated with aGVHD after NMAT.
• TNFR1 and sIL2Rα were not associated with aGVHD risk at any of these time-points.

Five candidate plasma biomarkers (suppression of tumorogenesis 2 [ST2], regenerating islet-derived-3α [REG3α], elafin, tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 [TNFR1], and soluble IL-2 receptor-alpha [sIL2Rα]) were measured at specific time points after cyclophosphamide/fludarabine-based nonmyeloablative allotransplantation (NMAT) in patients who did or did not develop acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD). Plasma samples from 34 patients were analyzed at days +7, +14, +21, and +30. At a median follow-up of 358 days, 17 patients had experienced aGVHD with a median time to onset at day +36. Risk of aGVHD was associated with elevated plasma ST2 concentrations at day +7 (c-statistic = .72, P = .03), day +14 (c-statistic = .74, P = .02), and day +21 (c-statistic = .75, P = .02); elevated plasma REG3α concentrations at day +14 (c-statistic = .73, P = .03), day +21 (c-statistic = .76, P = .01), and day +30 (c-statistic = .73, P = .03); and elevated elafin at day +14 (c-statistic = .71, P = .04). Plasma concentrations of TNFR1 and sIL2Rα were not associated with aGVHD risk at any of the time points studied. This study identified ST2, REG3α, and elafin as prognostic biomarkers to evaluate risk of aGVHD after cyclophosphamide/fludarabine-based NMAT. These results need to be confirmed in an independent validation cohort.