Improving simulation predictions of wind around buildings using measurements through system identification techniques

• Measurements are used to infer the parameter values of the CFD simulation.
• Time-dependent predictions of wind at unmeasured locations are obtained.
• Information about uncertainties in predictions is obtained.
• Tighter prediction ranges of wind are possible after measurements.

Wind behavior in urban areas is receiving increasing interest from city planners and architects. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are often employed to assess wind behavior around buildings. However, the accuracy of CFD simulations is often unknown. Measurements can be used to help understand wind behavior around buildings more accurately.In this paper, a model-based data interpretation framework is presented to integrate information obtained from measurements with simulation results. Multiple model instances are generated from a model class through assigning values to parameters that are not known precisely, including those for inlet wind conditions. The information provided by measurements is used to falsify model instances whose predictions do not match measurements and to estimate the parameter values of the simulation. The information content of measurement data depends on levels of measurement and modeling uncertainties at sensor locations. Modeling uncertainties are those associated with the model class such as effects associated with turbulent fluctuations or thermal processes.The model-based data interpretation framework is applied to the study of the wind behavior around the buildings of the Treelodge@Punggol estate, located in Singapore. The framework incorporates modeling and measurement uncertainties and provides probability-based predictions at unmeasured locations. This paper illustrates the possibility to improve approximations of modeling uncertainties through avoiding falsification of the entire set of model instances. It is concluded that the framework has the potential to infer time-dependent sets of parameter values and to predict time-dependent responses at unmeasured locations.