Coupled hydro-mechanical fault reactivation analysis incorporating evidence theory for uncertainty quantification

The injection of water (or CO2) at high pressure is a common practice to enhance oil production. A crucial component of this activity is the estimation of the maximum pressure at which the fluids can be injected without inducing the reactivation of pre-existing faults that may exist in the formation. The damage zones typically formed around the geological faults are highly heterogeneous. The materials involved in the damage zones are characterized by the huge variation of their properties and high uncertainties associated with them. To estimate the maximum allowable injection pressure this paper presents a novel approach based on: a coupled hydro-mechanical formulation (for the numerical analyses); a criterion based on the total plastic work (for the fault reactivation); and the evidence theory (for uncertainty quantification). A case study based on information gathered from an actual field is presented to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed framework.