Probabilistic infinite slope analysis

Research activity in the mechanics of landslides has led to renewed interest in the infinite slope equations, and the need for a more general framework for giving insight into the probability of failure of long slopes involving non-homogeneous vertical soil profiles and variable groundwater conditions. This paper describes a methodology in which parameters such as the soil strength, slope geometry and pore pressures, are generated using random field theory. Within the limitations of the infinite slope assumptions, the paper clearly demonstrates the important “seeking out” effect of failure mechanisms in spatially random materials, and how “first order” methods that may not properly account for spatial variability can lead to unconservative estimates of the probability of slope failure.