Chinese residential energy demand: Scenarios to 2030 and policies implication

• The residential energy use in China has been examined and predicted.
• Driving factors consist of population, floor area, per capita income and appliances.
• A range of different scenarios to 2030 – at national and regional level – is presented and discussed.
• By improving buildings’ thermal performance and efficiency great results could be achieved.
• The energy savings related to occupant behaviour changes are remarkable.

In China, the population is expected to continue to grow together with construction of new buildings. Consequently, the energy demand required by the building sector will inevitably rise. This paper focuses on the Chinese residential sector and describes the structure by using the EfB—energy for buildings model. Using this tool it is possible to simulate the trend of the energy demand until 2030. A range of different scenarios – at national and regional level – is presented and discussed, including government plans and the application of some proposed recommendations. The analysis suggests that the energy consumption in this sector will not stop its growth and in 2030 it will comprise between 9500 and 14,000 PJ. Meaningful energy savings can be achieved with the introduction of more aggressive policies and behavioural change. Many difficulties have been faced in this work because of the complexity and rapid evolution of the Country; anyway, it can be considered as a starting point for future research. Among further improvements, the paper suggests the introduction of a more complete description of the building types, the association of the floor area evolution to the construction sector activity and the inclusion of economic and environmental evaluations.