Stochastic model for electrical loads in Mediterranean residential buildings: Validation and applications

• We develop a stochastic model for electric loads in Mediterranean households.
• The model is able to reproduce the most important features of residential loads.
• The model can be used for simulated detailed profiles for a cluster of buildings.
• Generation of stochastic dwellings with real peaks and annual and daily mean loads.
• The model can use the energy labelling information of appliances as input.

A major issue in modelling the electrical load of residential building is reproducing the variability between dwellings due to the stochastic use of different electrical equipment. In that sense and with the objective to reproduce this variability, a stochastic model to obtain load profiles of household electricity is developed. The model is based on a probabilistic approach and is developed using data from the Mediterranean region of Spain. A detailed validation of the model has been done, analysing and comparing the results with Spanish and European data. The results of the validation show that the model is able to reproduce the most important features of the residential electrical consumption, especially the particularities of the Mediterranean countries. The final part of the paper is focused on the potential applications of the models, and some examples are proposed. The model is useful to simulate a cluster of buildings or individual households. The model allows obtaining synthetic profiles representing the most important characteristics of the mean dwelling, by means of a stochastic approach. The inputs of the proposed model are adapted to energy labelling information of the electric devices. An example case is presented considering a dwelling with high performance equipment.