Estimating fuel poverty at household level: An integrated approach

• We estimate domestic energy costs and fuel poverty using an integrated approach.
• The approach accounts for physical and household-driven factors.
• Model results are validated against empirical measurements.
• Results suggest the validity of area-based targeting tools.
• Fuel poverty is found to vary in a complex way amongst households.

Fuel poverty occurs when households are unable to heat their home to adequate standards at reasonable cost. Affordable warmth schemes commonly aim to improve the energy efficiency of housing, which makes home heating more affordable. Authorities require identification tools, ideally at household-level, in order to implement these schemes effectively. This study develops a household-level fuel poverty indicator by integrating data from a large household survey (N = 1595) with other datasets (including GIS) within a reduced data framework. The model is based on the UK's Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP), but makes several adjustments to account for household size, electricity consumption, occupancy patterns and up-to-date, local fuel prices. Predicted SAP ratings, calculated by a standardised version of the model, correlate well with empirical measurements. The ‘household-based’ metric developed in this study is argued to provide more realistic estimates of energy costs. Fuel poverty is prevalent amongst the households in this study, although a severity classification shows that not all households experience fuel poverty in equal measure. This study provides several important insights for affordable warmth policies across Europe, including the efficacy of area-based targeting tools. A two-part approach, combining area- and household-level targeting, may yield the most effective results.