Project Complexity and Risk Management (ProCRiM): Towards modelling project complexity driven risk paths in construction projects

• A new process connecting Project Complexity and Risk Management is proposed.
• Interdependency between complexity drivers, risks and objectives is captured.
• Empirical research is conducted to ascertain complexity/risk management practices.
• The modelling approach used is grounded in the frameworks of EUT and BBNs.
• The process aids prioritisation of complexity drivers, risks and strategies.

Project complexity has been extensively explored in the literature because of its contribution towards the failure of major projects in terms of cost and time overruns. Focusing on the interface of Project Complexity and Interdependency Modelling of Project Risks, we propose a new process that aids capturing interdependency between project complexity, complexity induced risks and project objectives. The proposed modelling approach is grounded in the theoretical framework of Expected Utility Theory and Bayesian Belief Networks. We consider the decision problem of identifying critical risks and selecting optimal risk mitigation strategies at the commencement stage of a project, taking into account the utility function of the decision maker with regard to the importance of project objectives and holistic interaction between project complexity and risk. The proposed process is supported by empirical research that was conducted in the construction industry and its application is illustrated through a simulation study.