Conceptualising uncertainty in safety-critical projects: A practitioner perspective

• Analysis of project uncertainty literature using Söderlund's seven schools framework
• Rich qualitative interviews with project managements in safety-critical industries
• Synthesis of the uncertainty kaleidoscope to understand the sources of uncertainty
• Identification of four conceptual approaches to the management of project uncertainty

In safety-critical organisations such as civil-nuclear and aerospace, managing uncertainty is of particular importance as the consequences of failure can be potentially catastrophic. The challenge facing project managers in these complex, socio-technical environments is how to better understand the sources of project uncertainty and how to navigate a path through them in pursuit of successful project outcomes.This exploratory study analyses the literature on the management of uncertainty in projects using Söderlund's (2011) seven schools of thought on project management. Additionally it draws on interviews with project management practitioners from several large-scale projects in civil-nuclear and aerospace companies in the United Kingdom to posit the “uncertainty kaleidoscope” as a means of understanding the sources of uncertainty in safety-critical projects and identifies four conceptual approaches that may be adopted by project managers to attenuate the impact of uncertainty on the delivery of successful project outcomes.