The effects of fossil placement and calibration on divergence times and rates: An example from the termites (Insecta: Isoptera)

Among insects, eusocial behavior occurs in termites, ants, some bees and wasps. Isoptera and Hymenoptera convergently share social behavior, and for both taxa its evolution remains poorly understood. While dating analyses provide researchers with the opportunity to date the origin of eusociality, fossil calibration methodology may mislead subsequent ecological interpretations. Using a comprehensive termite dataset, we explored the effect of fossil placement and calibration methodology. A combined molecular and morphological dataset for 42 extant termite lineages was used, and a second dataset including these 42 taxa, plus an additional 39 fossil lineages for which we had only morphological data. MrBayes doublet-model analyses recovered similar topologies, with one minor exception (Stolotermitidae is sister to the Hodotermitidae, s.s., in the 42-taxon analysis but is in a polytomy with Hodotermitidae and (Kalotermitidae + Neoisoptera) in the 81-taxon analysis). Analyses using the r8s program on these topologies were run with either minimum/maximum constraints (analysis a = 42-taxon and analysis c = 81-taxon analyses) or with the fossil taxon ages fixed (ages fixed to be the geological age of the deposit from which they came, analysis b = 81-taxon analysis). Confidence intervals were determined for the resulting ultrametric trees, and for most major clades there was significant overlap between dates recovered for analyses A and C (with exceptions, such as the nodes Neoisoptera, and Euisoptera). With the exception of isopteran and eusiopteran node ages, however, none of the major clade ages overlapped when analysis B is compared with either analysis A or C. Future studies on Dictyoptera should note that the age of Kalotermitidae was underestimated in absence of kalotermitid fossils with fixed ages.