Parnassius apollo last-instar larvae development prediction by analysis of weather condition as a tool in the species’ conservation

Parnassius apollo (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) has already disappeared or is under threat of extinction in many of its former habitats. It has been documented that weather conditions – anomalies in particular – contributed to this process. In this study, we combined developmental data obtained previously for the last-instar Apollo larvae (collected in 1996, 1997, and 2003) with corresponding meteorological data to assess the effects of ambient temperature and rainfall episodes on the duration and the completion of the instar. For comparing the temperature effect, we applied the degree-day concept. We found significant positive correlation between the number of rainy days during the instar development (x) and its duration time (y): y = 8.293 + 0.936x (± 2.813) (r = 0.662, P < 10−7). Logarithmic transformation of the growth curves of the last-instar Apollo larvae revealed that there was no difference in growth among females; however, there was slower growth of males in 2003 in comparison to 1996. Growth (y) of female Apollo larvae as a function of instar duration (x) can by described by one common equation, irrespectively of the year: y = 317.6 + 502.3 lnx (± 263.3) (r = 0.82, P < 10−4).