Survival time prediction in marine environments

One of the most challenging questions regarding aquatic search and rescue or recovery operations is the physiological status of the victims. A Probability of Survival Decision Aid (PSDA) was developed to predict survival time for hypothermia and dehydration during prolonged exposure in marine environments for a wide range of environmental conditions. PSDA calculates the survival time of a victim in the water or floating in an emergency craft as a function of environmental conditions, clothing and human anthropometric parameters. PSDA consists of a human thermoregulatory model and a Graphic User Interface, which manages inputs, run the model and display outputs. PSDA was validated using historical survival data and reports of accidental water immersions. For eight immersion victims of known height and weight, the victims’ predicted survival time was either in close agreement or greater than the observed survival time. Additional physiological data from case histories and/or controlled studies are needed to validate the PSDA and to expand its application to other hazardous situations. PSDA is intended to assist the search and rescue personnel in operation optimal planning.

► Prediction of victims’ physiological status is essential to search and rescue operation planning.
► Probability of Survival Decision Aid (PSDA) is a user-friendly support tool.
► PSDA predicts survival time for hypothermia and dehydration in marine environments.
► PSDA was validated using historical survival data and reports of accidental water immersions.