Is the Incidence of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Declining in the 21st Century? Mortality and Hospital Admissions for England & Wales and Scotland

BackgroundBetween 1951 and 1995 there was a steady increase in age-standardised deaths from all aortic aneurysms in men, from 2 to 56 per 100,000 population in England & Wales, supporting an increase in incidence. More recently, evidence from Sweden and elsewhere suggests that now the incidence of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) may be declining.MethodsNational statistics for hospital admissions and deaths from AAA, after population age-standardisation, were used to investigate current trends in England & Wales and Scotland.ResultsBetween 1997 and 2009 there has been a reduction in age-adjusted mortality from AAA from 40.4 to 25.7 per 100,000 population for England & Wales and from 30.1 to 20.8 per 100,000 population in Scotland. The decrease in mortality was more marked for men than women. Mortality decreased more than 2-fold in those <75 years versus 25% only in those >75 years. During this same time period the elective hospital admissions for AAA repair have only increased in the population >75 years.ConclusionsThese data suggest that the age at which clinically-relevant aneurysms present has increased by 5–10 years and that incidence of clinically-relevant AAA in men in England & Wales and Scotland is declining rapidly. The reasons for this are unclear.