Evaluation of decomposition models of various complexity to estimate the direct solar irradiance over Belgium

• Valuable DNI can be derived from MSG data regardless of the retrieved GHI accuracy.
• Models performance widely varies according to the sky conditions.
• Worst performance when the global radiation is dominated by diffuse radiation.

Solar energy production is directly correlated to the amount of radiation received at a given location. Appropriate information on solar resources is therefore very important for designing and sizing solar energy systems. Concentrated solar power projects and photovoltaic tracking systems rely predominantly on direct normal irradiance (DNI). However, the availability of DNI measurements from surface observation stations has proven to be spatially too sparse to quantify solar resources at most potential sites. Satellite data can be used to calculate estimates of direct solar radiation where ground measurements do not exist. Performance of decomposition models of various complexity have been evaluated against one year of in situ observations recorded on the roof of the radiometric tower of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium in Uccle, Brussels. Models were first evaluated on a hourly and sub-hourly basis using measurements of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) as input. Second, the best performing ground-based decomposition models were used to extract the direct component of the global radiation retrieved from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) images. Results were then compared to direct beam estimations provided by satellite-based diffuse fraction models and evaluated against direct solar radiation data measured at Uccle. Our analysis indicates that valuable DNI estimation can be derived from MSG images over Belgium regardless of the satellite retrieved GHI accuracy. Moreover, the DNI retrieval from MSG data can be implemented on an operational basis.