A stochastic framework for uncertainty analysis in electric power transmission systems with wind generation

• We analyze uncertainties in transmission power systems with wind power generation.
• We develop a stochastic model for simulating line disconnection/reconnection due to overloads.
• We propagate uncertainties due to consumption, ambient temperature and wind power generation variability.
• We work out a case study of literature and draw conclusions on the impact of variability on grid reliability.
• Local lack of adequacy may cause cascade events and we define safety margins in wind power and power request.

The purpose of this work is the analysis of the uncertainties affecting an electric transmission network with wind power generation and their impact on its reliability. A stochastic model was developed to simulate the operations and the line disconnection and reconnection events of the electric network due to overloads beyond the rated capacity. We represent and propagate the uncertainties related to consumption variability, ambient temperature variability, wind speed variability and wind power generation variability. The model is applied to a case study of literature. Conclusions are drawn on the impact that different sources of variability have on the reliability of the network and on the seamless electric power supply. Finally, the analysis enables identifying possible system states, in terms of power request and supply, that are critical for network vulnerability and may induce a cascade of line disconnections leading to massive network blackout.