Bayesian estimation of seismic hazards in Iran

Seismic hazard assessment is a basic tool for rational planning and designing in areas of different seismic activity. The Bayesian probability estimation was applied in this study to assess seismic hazard. The estimation procedure provides a posterior probability distribution that integrates prior estimates based on the knowledge of the process, and the likelihood of occurrence based on historical data. The Bayesian approach was applied to calculate the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude would be exceeded at certain time intervals in different regions of Iran. The results for the cut-off magnitude of 6.5 indicate that the highest probability of seismic hazard exists in the Alborz, Kopeh-Dagh, Bandar-Abas, Kerman, and Zagros regions. The seismic hazard is lowest for the Esfahan–Sirgan region, the Arabian Platform, the Persian Gulf, and Kavir in Central Iran. The comparison between the Bayesian results and the seismotectonic models of Iran reveals that it is possible to partition the spatially distributed epicenters of earthquake events into different regions. In general, these regional divisions agree with previously proposed seismotectonic provinces of Iran.