Incidence and risk factors for the metabolic syndrome in an urban South European population

ObjectiveTo estimate the incidence of the metabolic syndrome in a Portuguese sample and to evaluate its specific risk factors.MethodsDuring a follow-up evaluation (May 2005–September 2008) of a Portuguese community cohort, 1377 participants were eligible for this study. Data on social, demographic, personal and family medical history and behavioral characteristics (including alcohol consumption and smoking habits) were collected.The metabolic syndrome was defined according to the AHA/NHLBI criteriaCrude incidence rates were calculated for the total sample, by sex and age classes, and Poisson generalized linear models were used, with the default log link and offset in the variable time.ResultsThe incidence rate of metabolic syndrome in this population was 47.2 /1000 person-years (95% CI: 41.2–53.9), similar in females and in males.The incidence of metabolic syndrome increased with age and in less educated participants. No significant association was observed between the occurrence of metabolic syndrome and the behavioral characteristics evaluated.High waist circumference presented the strongest association with the occurrence of the metabolic syndrome, even after adjustment for other confounders (IRR = 1.68; 95% CI: 1.47–1.93).ConclusionOlder and less educated participants had a higher syndrome incidence. In this population, central obesity was the strongest predictor of metabolic syndrome.