Hydraulic model with roughness coefficient updating method based on Kalman filter for channel flood forecast +

A real-time channel flood forecast model was developed to simulate channel flow in plain rivers based on the dynamic wave theory. Taking into consideration channel shape differences along the channel, a roughness updating technique was developed using the Kalman filter method to update Manning's roughness coefficient at each time step of the calculation processes. Channel shapes were simplified as rectangles, triangles, and parabolas, and the relationships between hydraulic radius and water depth were developed for plain rivers. Based on the relationship between the Froude number and the inertia terms of the momentum equation in the Saint-Venant equations, the relationship between Manning's roughness coefficient and water depth was obtained. Using the channel of the Huaihe River from Wangjiaba to Lutaizi stations as a case, to test the performance and rationality of the present flood routing model, the original hydraulic model was compared with the developed model. Results show that the stage hydrographs calculated by the developed flood routing model with the updated Manning's roughness coefficient have a good agreement with the observed stage hydrographs. This model performs better than the original hydraulic model.