Prognostic significance of early recurrence: a conditional survival analysis in patients with resected colorectal liver metastasis

BackgroundFor patients undergoing liver resection for colorectal metastases, specific clinico‐pathological variables have been shown to be prognostic at baseline. This study analyses how the prognostic capability of these variables changes in a conditional survival model.MethodsRetrospective review of a prospectively maintained database of patients who underwent an R0 resection of colorectal liver metastases from 1994 to 2004 at a single institution.ResultsIn total, 807 patients were identified, with an 87‐month median follow‐up for survivors. Five‐ and 10‐year disease‐specific survivals (DSS) were 68% and 55%, respectively. The probability of further survival increased as the survival time increased. For 3‐year survivors (n = 504), DSS were no longer significantly different between patients with a low (0–2) or high (3–5) clinical risk score (CRS, P = 0.19). On multivariate analysis, independent predictors of DSS for 3‐year survivors were recurrence within the first 3 years after a liver resection, a pre‐operative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) >200 ng/ml and disease‐free interval <12 months prior to the diagnosis of liver metastasis. However, for those patients who were recurrence free at 1 year, no clinico‐pathological variables retained prognostic significance.DiscussionAfter 3 years of DSS and 1 year of recurrence‐free survival, baseline clinico‐pathological variables have a limited ability to predict future survival. Early post‐operative recurrence appears to be the most useful single clinical feature in estimating conditional DSS.