Estimating Transition Probabilities in Mobility and Total Costs for Medicare Beneficiaries

Hoffman JM, Ciol MA, Huynh M, Chan L. Estimating transition probabilities in mobility and total costs for Medicare beneficiaries.ObjectiveTo examine how persons move back and forth along levels of mobility disability.DesignSelf-reported mobility limitations were used to create categories of annual transition states. The total cost to Medicare associated with each year was calculated for each participant. In addition, we examined cost relative to transition state, adjusting for demographic and other health status variables.SettingNational survey.ParticipantsParticipants in the longitudinal Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey from 1992 to 2005.InterventionsNot applicable.Main Outcome MeasuresAnnual self-reported mobility limitations and total Medi costs.ResultsMost participants remained without mobility limitations or improved over time. Reported average costs were 10 times higher for those who transitioned to severe limitations, unable to walk, or death compared with persons who reported no mobility limitation. Estimated costs were highest for those transitioning to increased states of disability and to death.ConclusionsMobility limitations in older adults are dynamic, and improvement (as measured by annual transitions) occurred for a large number of Medicare beneficiaries. High total annual costs were observed in groups that transitioned to worsening mobility states, suggesting a link between mobility limitation transitions and cost. Prevention and treatment of mobility limitation may be an important factor to consider in health care reform.