Spatial and statistical analyses of the relations between vegetation cover and incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in an endemic province, northeast of Iran

ObjectiveTo investigate the relations between the vegetation cover and occurrence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Golestan province during 2010–2012.MethodsData of monthly CL incidence and remote sensing normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer sensor were used in the study. Pearson's correlation analysis was conducted to examine the type and strength of relationships between the spatially averaged NDVI variables (i.e. minimum, maximum and mean NDVI values) and CL incidence in township level. Spearman rank correlation was carried out to explain associations between the monthly CL incidence and NDVI variables at 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 months lagged periods. Locations of CL cases at village level were geocoded and compared with frequency of CL cases in each NDVI-derived vegetation categories.ResultsPearson's analysis revealed significant associations between the NDVI variables and CL incidence at the township level (P<0.05). Results of Spearman analysis indicated that the highest correlations between NDVI variables and monthly CL incidence were established when the NDVI time-series lagged the CL incidence series NDVI variables. Purely spatial analysis demonstrated that despite majority of cases occurred at partially-vegetated areas, the possibility of CL occurrence was higher in bare soil areas by taking into account area of each vegetation zones.Conclusionslack or low vegetation cover is a major determinant of CL frequencies in Golestan province. The decrease of the mean vegetation density in townships is accompanied by increase of CL occurrence and vice versa.