An autonomous and intelligent expert system for residential water end-use classification

• Smart metering technology enables the capture of high resolution water consumption data.
• Intelligent algorithms developed to autonomously categorise single and combined water end use events.
• Hybrid combination of HMM, DTW and probability techniques applied to pattern recognition problem.
• Adaptive functionality embedded to enable model to self-train when applied in new cities or regions.
• User friendly expert system developed to autonomously disaggregate water consumption data into end use categories.

Intelligent metering technology combined with advanced numerical techniques enable a paradigm shift in the current level of water consumption information provision that is available to the customer and the water business. The aim of this study was to develop an autonomous and intelligent system for residential water end-use classification that could interface with customers and water business managers via a user-friendly web-based application. Water flow data collected directly from smart water meters includes both single (e.g., a shower event occurring alone) and combined (i.e., an event that comprises several overlapping single events) water end use events. The authors recently developed intelligent algorithms to solve the complex problem of autonomously categorising residential water consumption data into a registry of single and combined events using a hybrid combination of techniques including Hidden Markov Model (HMM), Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm, time-of-day probability functions, threshold values and various physical features. However, the issue still remained, which is the focus of this current paper, on how to integrate self-learning functionality into the visioned expert system, in order that it can learn from newly collected datasets from different cities, regions and countries, to that collected for the training data. Such versatility and adaptive capacity is essential to make the expert system widely applicable. Through applying alternate forms of HMM and DTW in association with a frequency analysis technique, a suitable self-learning methodology was formulated and tested on three independent households located in Melbourne, Australia with a prediction accuracy of between 80% and 90% for the major end-use categories. The three principle flow data processing modules (i.e., single and combined event recognition and self-learning function) were integrated into a prototype software application for performing autonomous water end-use analysis and its functionality is presented in the latter sections of this paper. The developed expert system has profound implications for government, water businesses and consumers, seeking to better manage precious urban water resources.