Predictive analytics for delivering prevention services

• Logical Analysis of Data (LAD) is applied to prevention research.
• Real data sets from Baltimore City Public Schools are used for LAD analysis.
• Data patterns explaining children’s conduct disorder are extracted by LAD.
• We showed how LAD can reduce the cost of delivering prevention services.

Early diagnosis and prevention of problematic behaviors in youth play an important role in reducing treatment costs and decreasing the toll of antisocial behavior. Over the last several years, the science of preventing antisocial behavior in youth has made significant strides, with the development of evidence-based prevention programs (EBP) using randomized clinical trials. In this paper, we use a real case implemented by schools in an urban school district of 80,000 students in a mid-Atlantic state to show how predictive analytics can help to improve the quality of prevention programs and reduce the cost of delivering associated services. Data patterns are extracted from conduct disorder assessments using the Teacher Observation of Classroom Adaptation (TOCA) screening instrument and evaluated using the results of the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children (DISC). A mathematical method called Logical Analysis of Data (LAD) is used to analyze data patterns. Experimental results show that up to 91.58% of the cost of administering DISC would be saved by correctly identifying participants without conduct disorder and excluding them from the DISC test.