کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
385041 660858 2009 7 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Forecasting innovation diffusion of products using trend-weighted fuzzy time-series model
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر هوش مصنوعی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Forecasting innovation diffusion of products using trend-weighted fuzzy time-series model
چکیده انگلیسی

The time-series models have been used to make reasonably accurate predictions in weather forecasting, academic enrolment, stock price, etc. This study proposes a novel method that incorporates trend-weighting into the fuzzy time-series models advanced by Chen’s and Yu’s method to explore the extent to which the innovation diffusion of ICT products could be adequately described by the proposed procedure. To verify the proposed procedure, the actual DSL (digital subscriber line) data in Taiwan is illustrated, and this study evaluates the accuracy of the proposed procedure by comparing with different innovation diffusion models: Bass model, Logistic model and Dynamic model. The results show that the proposed procedure surpasses the methods listed in terms of accuracy and SSE (Sum of Squares Error).

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Expert Systems with Applications - Volume 36, Issue 2, Part 1, March 2009, Pages 1826–1832
نویسندگان
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