The Risk of Distant Metastases and Cancer Specific Survival in Men with Serum Prostate Specific Antigen Values above 100 ng/ml

PurposeCurrent EAU (European Association of Urology) guidelines state that prostate specific antigen 100 ng/ml or greater at diagnosis indicates metastatic disease. We examined the association of prostate specific antigen 100 ng/ml or greater at diagnosis with distant metastasis and prostate cancer specific survival.Material and MethodsA total of 15,635 men with prostate cancer diagnosed between 1998 and 2009 who were identified in PCBaSe (Prostate Cancer Data Base Sweden 2.0) were included in a population based registry study. Prostate cancer specific survival was compared among 3 groups, including 1,879 men with prostate specific antigen 100 ng/ml or greater and negative imaging (M0), 5,642 with distant metastases on imaging (M1) and prostate specific antigen 100 ng/ml or greater, and 3,828 with M1 and prostate specific antigen less than 100 ng/ml. A fourth group consisted of 4,286 men with prostate specific antigen 100 ng/ml or greater who had not undergone imaging (Mx). The latter men were not included in the assessment of survival.ResultsOf 7,521 men with prostate specific antigen 100 ng/ml or greater who underwent imaging for staging 75% were classified with M1 disease. Only 59% of 3,527 men with prostate specific antigen 100 to 300 mg/ml had distant metastases on imaging. Five-year prostate cancer specific survival was 72% (95% CI 70–74) in men with prostate specific antigen 100 ng/ml or greater and M0, 24% (95% CI 23–25) in men with prostate specific antigen 100 ng/ml or greater and M1, and 39% (95% CI 37–40) in men with prostate specific antigen less than 100 ng/ml and M1.ConclusionsA fourth of men with prostate specific antigen 100 ng/ml or greater did not have distant metastases. They had twofold to threefold higher 5-year survival than men with distant metastases on imaging. Our findings strongly suggest that using prostate specific antigen 100 ng/ml or greater as an indicator of metastatic disease should be reconsidered.