Intelligent system for time series classification using support vector machines applied to supply-chain

To be able of anticipate demand is a key factor for commercial success in the supply-chain sector. The benefits can be grouped around two main concepts: firstly the optimization of operations through the development of optimal strategies for procurement and secondly the stock reduction that reduces storage costs, handling, etc. There is currently a variety of methods for making predictions, these methods vary from pure statistical methods such as exponential smoothing Holt-Winters or ARIMA models, to those based on artificial intelligence techniques like neural networks or fuzzy systems. However, despite being able to build accurate models, in managing the supply chain based on forecasts there is a problem known as “Forrester effect” irrespective of the model chosen. To monitor the impact of this effect, given the volume of information handled in large corporations, is a very expensive task (often manual) for such corporations because it requires investigating issues such as the adequacy of the model, allocation of known models to the sales time series, discovery of new patterns of behavior, etc. This article proposes an intelligent system based on support vector machines to solve problems concerning the allocation and discovery of new models. With this focus in mind, the system objective is to build groups of time series that share the same forecasting model. For the identification of new models, the system will assign “virtual models” for those groups that do not have a predefined pattern. Using the proposed method, it has been possible to group a sample of more than 14,000 time series (real data taken from a store) in around 70 categories, of which only 12 of them already grouped over 98% of the total.

► An SVM-based system to solve the allocation and discovery of new models is proposed.
► The objective is to build groups of time series that share the same forecasting model.
► For the identification of new models, the system as signs “virtual models”.
► It groups a sample of more than 14,000 time series in around 70 categories.
► Only 12 of them already group over 98% of the total.