Predicting Prostate Cancer Risk Through Incorporation of Prostate Cancer Gene 3

PurposeThe online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risk calculator combines prostate specific antigen, digital rectal examination, family and biopsy history, age and race to determine the risk of prostate cancer. In this report we incorporate the biomarker prostate cancer gene 3 into the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risk calculator.Materials and MethodsMethodology was developed to incorporate new markers for prostate cancer into the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risk calculator based on likelihood ratios calculated from separate case control or cohort studies. The methodology was applied to incorporate the marker prostate cancer gene 3 into the risk calculator based on a cohort of 521 men who underwent prostate biopsy with measurements of urinary prostate cancer gene 3, serum prostate specific antigen, digital rectal examination and biopsy history. External validation of the updated risk calculator was performed on a cohort of 443 European patients, and compared to Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risks, prostate specific antigen and prostate cancer gene 3 by area underneath the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity and specificity.ResultsThe AUC of posterior risks (AUC 0.696, 95% CI 0.641–0.750) was higher than that of prostate specific antigen (AUC 0.607, 95% CI 0.546–0.668, p = 0.001) and Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risks (AUC 0.653, 95% CI 0.593–0.714, p <0.05). Although it was higher it was not statistically significantly different from that of prostate cancer gene 3 (AUC 0.665, 95% CI 0.610–0.721, p >0.05). Sensitivities of posterior risks were higher than those of prostate cancer gene 3, prostate specific antigen and Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risks.ConclusionsNew markers for prostate cancer can be incorporated into the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risk calculator by a novel approach. Incorporation of prostate cancer gene 3 improved the diagnostic accuracy of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risk calculator.