Prediction of incomplete primary debulking surgery in patients with advanced ovarian cancer: An external validation study of three models using computed tomography

• Ovarian cancer models that predict incomplete primary debulking have limited accuracy
• A radiologist's subjective assessment seems as successful as using a prediction model
• Prediction models should be interpreted with caution in clinical decision-making

ObjectiveTo test the ability of three prospectively developed computed tomography (CT) models to predict incomplete primary debulking surgery in patients with advanced (International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stages III–IV) ovarian cancer.MethodsThree prediction models to predict incomplete surgery (any tumor residual > 1 cm in diameter) previously published by Ferrandina (models A and B) and by Gerestein were applied to a validation cohort consisting of 151 patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer. All patients were treated with primary debulking surgery in the Eastern part of the Netherlands between 2000 and 2009 and data were retrospectively collected. Three individual readers evaluated the radiographic parameters and gave a subjective assessment. Using the predicted probabilities from the models, the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated which represents the discriminative ability of the model.ResultsThe AUC of the Ferrandina models was 0.56, 0.59 and 0.59 in model A, and 0.55, 0.60 and 0.59 in model B for readers 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The AUC of Gerestein's model was 0.69, 0.61 and 0.69 for readers 1, 2 and 3, respectively. AUC values of 0.69 and 0.63 for reader 1 and 3 were found for subjective assessment.ConclusionsModels to predict incomplete surgery in advanced ovarian cancer have limited predictive ability and their reproducibility is questionable. Subjective assessment seems as successful as applying predictive models. Present prediction models are not reliable enough to be used in clinical decision-making and should be interpreted with caution.