Anti-Müllerian hormone-based prediction model for a live birth in assisted reproduction

Prediction of assisted reproduction treatment outcome has been the focus of clinical research for many years, with a variety of prognostic models describing the probability of an ongoing pregnancy or a live birth. This study assessed whether serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentrations may be incorporated into a model to enhance the prediction of a live birth in women undergoing their first IVF cycle, by analysing a database containing clinical and laboratory information on IVF cycles carried out between 2005 and 2008 at the Mother–Infant Department of University Hospital, Modena. Logistic regression was used to examine the association of live birth with baseline patient characteristics. Only AMH and age were demonstrated in regression analysis to predict live birth, so a model solely based on these two criteria was generated. The model permitted the identification of live birth with a sensitivity of 79.2% and a specificity of only 44.2%. In the prediction of a live birth following IVF, a distinction, however moderate, can be made between couples with a good and a poor prognosis. The success of IVF was found to mainly depend on maternal age and serum AMH concentrations, one of the most relevant and valuable markers of ovarian reserve.The prediction of assisted reproduction treatment outcome has been the focus of clinical research for many years, with a variety of prognostic models describing the probability of an ongoing pregnancy or a live birth. The present study assessed whether serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentrations may be incorporated into a prediction model to enhance the prediction of a live birth in women undergoing their first IVF. Statistical analysis was used to examine the association of live birth with baseline patient characteristics, in particular age, AMH, body mass index, and type, duration and aetiology of infertility. Given that only AMH and age were demonstrated to predict live birth, a model solely based on these two criteria was generated. At the best cut-off, the model permitted the identification of live birth with a sensitivity of 79.2% and specificity of 44.2%. The present study demonstrates that in the prediction of a live birth following IVF a distinction, however moderate, can be made between couples with a good and a poor prognosis. The success of IVF was found to mainly depend on maternal age and serum AMH concentrations, one of the most relevant and valuable markers of ovarian reserve.