Age and a single day-14 β-HCG can predict ongoing pregnancy following IVF

The current study was undertaken to investigate the use of beta human chorionic gonadotrophin (β-HCG) concentration and other significant factors to predict the likelihood of an IVF pregnancy progressing to detection of cardiac activity by ultrasound, and to create data tables which can be used for patient counselling. A retrospective data analysis was undertaken of 1374 IVF cycles performed from January 1997 to July 2007, resulting in 662 pregnancies. Maternal age (P = 0.0005), day-14 (P < 0.001) and day-16 (P < 0.001) post-oocyte aspiration β-HCG concentrations were found to be significant in predicting pregnancy outcome. Multiple logistic regression modelling revealed that the most accurate predictive model used a single day-14 β-HCG concentration and maternal age. Day-14 and day-16 β-HCG concentrations were highly correlated, with the addition of a day-16 concentration adding no additional predictive value. Ongoing pregnancy rates were proportional to day-14 β-HCG concentration and inversely proportional to maternal age. The multiple pregnancy incidence increased proportionally with the initial β-HCG concentration. Thus, for the counselling of patients following IVF, a single day-14 post-oocyte-aspiration β-HCG concentration and maternal age are most predictive of the pregnancy continuing to detection of cardiac activity by ultrasound.