کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
398039 1438453 2014 21 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Introducing validity in fuzzy probability for judicial decision-making
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
معرفی اعتبار در احتمال فازی برای تصمیم گیری قضایی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر هوش مصنوعی
چکیده انگلیسی


• We propose a fuzzy validity–probability decision maker based on extended fuzzy logic (FLe).
• The system is formulated in terms of the proposed possibility–probability–validity distribution (PPVD).
• The approach is applied to a real-world setting of actual judicial cases.
• To examine the proposed approach, we compare the results with the decisions of human judges.
• The approach outperforms those of fuzzy probabilistic, FLe, fuzzy, and neural systems.

Since the Age of Enlightenment, most philosophers have associated reasoning with the rules of probability and logic. This association has been enhanced over the years and now incorporates the theory of fuzzy logic as a complement to the probability theory, leading to the concept of fuzzy probability. Our insight, here, is integrating the concept of validity into the notion of fuzzy probability within an extended fuzzy logic (FLe) framework keeping with the notion of collective intelligence. In this regard, we propose a novel framework of possibility–probability–validity distribution (PPVD). The proposed distribution is applied to a real world setting of actual judicial cases to examine the role of validity measures in automated judicial decision-making within a fuzzy probabilistic framework. We compute valid fuzzy probability of conviction and acquittal based on different factors. This determines a possible overall hypothesis for the decision of a case, which is valid only to a degree. Validity is computed by aggregating validities of all the involved factors that are obtained from a factor vocabulary based on the empirical data. We then map the combined validity based on the Jaccard similarity measure into linguistic forms, so that a human can understand the results. Then PPVDs that are obtained based on the relevant factors in the given case yield the final valid fuzzy probabilities for conviction and acquittal. Finally, the judge has to make a decision; we therefore provide a numerical measure. Our approach supports the proposed hypothesis within the three-dimensional contexts of probability, possibility, and validity to improve the ability to solve problems with incomplete, unreliable, or ambiguous information to deliver a more reliable decision.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning - Volume 55, Issue 6, September 2014, Pages 1383–1403
نویسندگان
, ,