کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
398762 1438774 2011 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A time-varying transformer outage model for on-line operational risk assessment
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر هوش مصنوعی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
A time-varying transformer outage model for on-line operational risk assessment
چکیده انگلیسی

The failure probabilities of system components may vary with changes in the operating conditions. Performing a probabilistic risk assessment in real-time is challenging, since component failure probabilities are difficult to predict. Accordingly, this paper introduces a delayed semi-Markov process that incorporates real-time data from advanced sensors, as a means of efficiently calculating time-varying or condition-based failure probabilities. To demonstrate the feasibility of the procedure, a time-varying transformer outage model with numerical examples is presented. In the proposed technique, an analytic random model is developed to accommodate the impact of real-time dissolved gas analysis data, as well as other conditions pertaining to the failure probabilities of system components.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems - Volume 33, Issue 3, March 2011, Pages 600–607
نویسندگان
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