Reliability assessment of bulk electric systems containing large wind farms

Wind power is an intermittent energy source that behaves quite differently than conventional energy sources. Bulk electric system reliability analysis associated with wind energy conversion systems (WECS) provides an opportunity to investigate the reliability benefits when large-scale wind power is injected at specified locations in a bulk electric system. Connecting the WECS to different locations in a bulk system can have different impacts on the overall system reliability depending on the system topology and conditions. Connecting a large-scale WECS to an area which has weak transmission could create system operating constraints and provide less system benefit than connecting it to an area with stronger transmission. This paper investigates bulk electric system transmission constraints associated with large-scale wind farms. The analyses presented in this paper can be used to determine the maximum WECS installed capacity that can be injected at specified locations in a bulk electric system, and assist system planners to create potential transmission reinforcement schemes to facilitate large-scale WECS additions to the bulk system. A sequential Monte Carlo simulation approach is used as this methodology can facilitate a time series modeling of wind speeds, and also provides accurate frequency and duration assessments. An auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) time series model is used to simulate hourly wind speeds.