Electric load evaluation and forecast based on the elliptic orbit algorithmic model

Electric load forecast analysis has become increasingly important for the industry. Climate factors are the ones of key factors influencing the load demand. The sun is vital for attributing climate change as the earth is moving (revolution, rotation) in its elliptical orbit around the sun. The paper introduces an elliptic orbit algorithmic model for yearly and daily electric load movement analysis. In the proposed model, electric load movement as a time series is mapped to the polar coordinates to build the algorithmic model that the angular coordinate represents time, and the radial coordinate donates its corresponding electric load. The built model with its elliptical orbit is used for load movement analysis. The proposed approach is applied to yearly load movement evaluation and forecast for State Gird Corporation of China (SG) and its five branches in 2006, and daily load movement evaluation and forecast for one daily load of Shanghai Grid. The experiments yield results agreeing well with their actual loads. The results indicate workability of the proposed.

► Introduce the elliptic orbit algorithmic model for load analysis.
► Provide a vivid description for load movement analysis in a intuitive way.
► Present a load evaluation approach called “complete elliptic modeling”.
► Propose a load forecast modeling called “incomplete elliptic modeling”.
► Applied to yearly and daily load movement analysis with satisfied results.