Frequency-duration analysis of composite distribution system using a non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation

This paper presents a methodology for composite distribution system well being analysis based on non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique accounting uncertainties in capacity of distribution substation and distributed generation (DG). The method is based on a system state transition sampling approach which is used to calculate frequency and duration indices along with probabilities in healthy state, marginal state and risky state for a composite distribution system. Capacity of distribution substation and distributed generations are considered as normally distributed i.e. continuous capacity. The effectiveness of the method for evaluation of annual well being indices is demonstrated for a sample test system with DG capacity variation considering a seven step load model based on annual load duration curve. A comparative study is carried out which illustrates the effect of distributed generation capacity on well being indices of a distribution system.

► A methodology is presented for composite distribution system well being analysis.
► State transition sampling is used to calculate frequency and duration indices.
► Probabilities in healthy state, marginal state and risky state are also calculated.
► Capacity of distribution substation is considered as normally distributed.
► Capacity of distributed generation is considered as normally distributed.