کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
399953 | 1438763 | 2012 | 7 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
کلمات کلیدی
1.مقدمه
2. اندازه گیری CIC
1.2. استفاده از PDF ها برای خروجیهای ارزش قابلیت اطمینان
3. انتخاب PDF
4. مطالعه موردی
1.4. تکنیک شبیه سازی مونت کارلو مستر در زمان
5. نتایج
1.5. تفسیر نتایج
6. نتیجه گیری
The use of probability distribution functions to describe reliability-worth input parameters is fairly new compared to using average values. Reliability-worth indices of power systems are frequently calculated as average values and convey little information about risk. In this paper beta probability distribution function was used to model time-dependent customer interruption costs as an input parameter to reliability-worth analyses of power systems. Time-sequential Monte-Carlo simulation technique that can handle time dependence of the input parameters was employed in the analysis. The results revealed that more information can be derived from the reliability-worth indices when probability distributions are used to describe the reliability-worth input and output parameters.
► We model reliability-worth input and output parameters using a beta distribution function.
► Time variation of customer interruption cost was included in the analysis.
► A time sequential Monte-Carlo simulation technique was used to perform the reliability-worth analysis.
► We examine changes in the reliability-worth index for different risk levels.
► The use of probability distribution functions enhance the interpretation of the index computed.
Journal: International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems - Volume 37, Issue 1, May 2012, Pages 110–116